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By William Van Winkle |
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| Without question, 2006 was one of the hottest years this industry has seen for innovation. Multi-core processors, Windows Vista, high-def blue laser technologies, virtualization, ultra-wideband wireless, and many more either landed or finally grew legs last year. That means 2007 is the year to grab these advances and turn them into serious business builders, hopefully before they've turned too mainstream and had their margin bled into the single digits. | ||||||||||||||||||
LETS BE CLEAR HERE. ADVANCES LIKE INTEL'S quad-core processors and many of Windows Vista's facets are must-sells that you'll doubtless turn into lucrative everyday items. But these are the obvious suspects. If you don't sell them, you'll soon be posting your resume everywhere from Monster to MySpace.
Instead, we wanted to home in on six high-margin but out of the ordinary areas, three in the consumer sphere and three in professional. Some of these may require a little more learning and sales effort, but the payoff will be worth it. Consumer TrifectA [ Blue About HDCP ] We've written plenty about the high-def blue laser format war between Blu-ray Disc (BD) and HD DVD (HD). Kinda like VHS vs. Betamax. Blah blah blah. Moving on. Those unprepared to sell blue laser drives will end up like those who ignored DVD five years ago. You have to do it. The movie industry is starting its inevitable exodus from DVD now, and once media prices fall out of the stratosphere, plenty of consumers and businesses are going to realize that backing up to blue laser discs is a decent idea. Verbatim is generally one of the first out with new optical media technologies, and today the company offers 2X Blu-ray BD-R (write-once, $17/ea) and 2X BD-RE (rewriteable, $25/ea) discs, both with 25GB single-layer capacities. On the HD DVD side, Verbatim has 1X HD DVD-R (write-once, $13/ea) and 2X HD DVD-RW (rewriteable, $35 if available) in single-layer 15GB capacities. According to Verbatim, double-layer BD media should be available in limited quantities by the time you read this, with –R pricing near $40 and –RW around $45. Double-layer HD will arrive with similar pricing by the end of Q1. Blue laser backup storage is the story few people are discussing yet, which is why it stands to be a smart pitch heading deeper into the year. Getting three to five times the capacity of a standard DVD on a single disc is valuable if only for improving organization and cutting down on the number of discs required for a given project. But clearly, Blu-ray and HD DVD movies are what drive the current consumer interest. Common wisdom says that buyers need to pick one format or the other, but LG's new Blue Super Multi drives are the first of many makes and models that will be rolling out this year with dual-format support. A drive that can read both formats effectively kills any worries of a format war because movies in either format will play just fine...in theory. The problem begins with the bandwidth required for decoding high-def video streams, generally considered to be 720p or 1080i/p resolution. Unlike today's DVD movies, which use MPEG-2 compression, BD and HD rely on H.264, a more efficient, higher quality codec that still chews through massive amounts of processing bandwidth in order to decode the source content. Even the fastest dual-core chips have a problem handling BD/HD decoding. In fact, according to Patrick Beaulieu, product marketing manager for PureVideo at NVIDIA, nothing short of a quad-core Core 2 chip has the horsepower to decode a full-quality H.264 stream without dropping frames. This is why Beaulieu and others are skeptical of the claims made by some motherboard manufacturers touting forthcoming boards with HDMI and HDCP support. They may have the hardware, but without the proper processor powering the decode, customers may not get what they expect.
The better solution, at least for the near term, is to add in a graphics card with dedicated H.264 decoding circuitry in the GPU, meaning anything from the ATI X1000 or NVIDIA GeForce 7/8 series. What most people don't understand yet is that we've only seen the first wave of BD/HD development. In the second half of this year, studios will start to release dual-stream movies, meaning they have the ability to run two streams of HD content in a picture-in-picture or superimposed fashion. (This will prove handy for viewing director's commentary, alternate viewing angles, or similar items while the main movie continues to play.) According to Beaulieu, not even a quad-core chip is up to decoding dual-stream blue laser content, and it seems likely that today's mid-level GPUs may also be overwhelmed. So you can either expect a certain percentage of your buyers to need upgrades (after significant complaining) or urge them into higher-end GPUs now along with those chips' many other benefits. HDCP (High-Bandwidth Digital Content Protection) is another bone of contention in today's blue laser scene. Essentially, HDCP is a protocol that establishes a secure chain for protected digital content to flow through. If a non-compliant device, such as a "black box" for hacking discs, enters into the chain at any point, the HDCP technology will render the display blank.
"Once the video has been decoded," explains Beaulieu, "each frame must be displayed, and this is where HDCP is becoming part of the equation. In order for the movie player to be allowed to display the content through the DVI or HDMI outputs, it needs to have a secure connection through an HDCP protocol to a TV or monitor. If you don't have a secure connection reported between the display device and the graphics card, then the movie player will show a blank screen with an error message." If you use a VGA or other analog connection, like component output, HDCP is not required. However, when the content is equipped with another protection called ICT (Image Constraint Token) and and the ICT bit is enabled, then analog output must be downscaled to a quarter of its original size. This would knock 1080 content down to roughly DVD-quality. This ICT restriction is independent of HDCP, but the two are often discussed together. Fortunately, none of the 370-some blue laser movies that have been released as of this writing have the ICT bit enabled, although the movie studios remain free to turn it on in new releases whenever they please, and many suspect this will happen after the mandated switch-over to digital TV broadcasting in 2009. There is no way to make a movie with disabled ICT enabled after the fact, but fair use advocates remain fearful that HDCP, ICT, AACS (Advanced Access Content System, another copy protection scheme employed in blue laser movies), and other digital rights management technologies will leave consumers with practically no rights to the content they purchase. (Brief tangent here: In a recent Slyck.com interview, renowned hacker muslix64 says he circumvented the HD DVD content protection in eight days. He then adds, "After the HD-DVD crack, I realized that things were ‘unbalanced' by having just one format cracked, so I did Blu-ray too." While we would never endorse selling blue laser-equipped PCs over consumer electronics players for this purpose, the fact is that there will be a growing community of users who will want to use "open" player software to play cracked HD movie content. This may prove to be a small but important niche that drives living room PC adoption, as discussed below.) Fair use aside, a future-compatible PC should have HDCP support in both the display adapter and the monitor. In mid-range graphics cards, only a couple of HDCP-compliant parts were available in 2006. Going forward, though, all new 8000-series NVIDIA cards feature HDCP, and it's a fair bet that the cards based on ATI's R600 graphics core will follow suit. At present, while HDCP televisions are plentiful, only about 15 PC monitors offer support. [ Battle for the Living Room ] Not to be overly anachronistic, but we're starting to feel like a broken record. For years we've been saying, "This is the year for living room home theater computing!" When Intel's Viiv platform launched a year ago, we were sure that the conjunction of dual-core CPUs, Windows XP Media Center Edition, and a formidable content partner roster was going to have Viiv boxes selling like Britney Spears singles. Only, as we've seen, Britney ain't what she used to be, and the bare truth is that Viiv 1.x flopped. Why? Maybe the premium content was too sparse and expensive. Maybe the fact that users had to switch between their remotes and keyboards in the same app soured the experience. And maybe the press just hated Viiv into oblivion because 12 months ago, before Core microarchitecture blew AMD's Athlon line off the map, hating Intel was fashionable. For AMD's part, the similar-but-different LIVE! platform continues to be a catchy logo with little substance to back it up.
In the end, 2006 was an embarrassment for home theater PCs (HTPCs). Meanwhile, here comes Microsoft out to seize the planet (again). Obviously, Microsoft's PlaysForSure platform, supported by just about every media player company besides Apple, wasn't making enough of a dent in iPod sales, so Microsoft bailed on developing PlaysForSure. Instead, they delivered Zune, probably the most underwhelming major gadget release of the year. Zune's PC client software, regardless of whether you own the player, acts as a media server able to send photos, audio, and video from the PC out to Xbox 360s around the house. In case you were wondering where MCE extenders went, this is the answer. The Zune and 360 are Windows' new extenders.
Apple/iPod/iTunes fans will see their own extender, the Apple TV, arriving this quarter, and it'll work just fine with Windows-based PCs. We've used third-party extenders, such as D-Link's MediaLounge player series or Linksys' increasingly ancient Wireless-B Media Adapter, and enjoyed the experience, but they still suffer without a full, unified content service (like iTunes) to back them up. Can you make money selling extenders? Sure. You might have to turn the hardware over near cost, but you can buy Xbox 360s, Apple gear, and all the rest through major distributors. The revenue opportunity comes from installation, configuration, and perhaps upgrading the user's home network (see below). Once you become the network authority, add-on sales from Web cams to Slingboxes become potential future upsells. Speaking of the Slingbox (www.slingmedia.com), this is another form of extender, only rather than moving your PC's multimedia across the network, a Slingbox sends your home television feed across the network, including to compatible handsets. The forthcoming HD Connect for the Slingbox Pro will even enable users to throw their HD premium channels around the house, often eliminating the need for additional set-top boxes from the cable or satellite company. As you can see, it's now possible to construct a fairly elaborate multimedia convergence solution without ever planting a PC in the living room. And barring some miraculous releases from Intel or AMD this year, we grow more sure by the month that the model set to win the mainstream will be one central PC serving up content to extender devices throughout the home. We wouldn't be surprised to see network-ready TVs eventually eliminate the need for extenders altogether as PCs will be able to send content directly to the TV's IP address. Does this mean that living room PCs are a dead concept? Not at all. We just don't think they will be mainstream. Consider the limitations of the current mainstream model, the cable or satellite set-top. With a DVR set-top, you can record shows, and with an HD-enabled box you can record the high-def channels. But that's it. The content is locked in that set-top box and, barring some cumbersome workarounds, tied to displaying only to the attached PC. Set-tops can't search Google, check email, shop on eBay, or anything else. In a world where technology convergence is the golden future, set-tops are a leaden throwback. Even third-generation, high-def, network-friendly TiVo has its shortcomings, chief among them being an $800 price tag and service plans starting at $12.95 per month—and you're still stuck paying $10 for each CableCARD from the cable provider each month.
For customers who want maximum flexibility with their media, nothing beats a Viiv-based HTPC. Despite the lack of market enthusiasm for Viiv, we still believe that Viiv 1.5 (and now 1.6 for Vista) is the most robust platform around for sharing media to multiple PCs and digital media adapters throughout a home. If Apple TV can trump Intel, fine, but today Viiv is the best technology on the table. The trick, of course, is finding Viiv-compliant parts. Start out at www.intel.com/go/rml/. You'll find that there are four Intel G965-based motherboards on the list, plus recent Extreme Series SKUs. From there, wander into the network infrastructure and networked media devices areas.
Viiv won't get you premium cable channels—that requires a CableCARD. The only way to get that in the immediate future is with the ATI TV Wonder Digital Cable Tuner, which is the first digital cable tuner for PCs with a CableCARD slot. The bad news is that the device will only be available (until further notice) on tier-one OEM systems running Windows Vista. This isn't AMD/ATI's fault. The content providers are calling all the shots on this arrangement. We have to believe that if AMD could make more money by selling to the channel, it would. So far, ATI is the only company to go public with CableCARD offerings. However, CableCARD is no final solution. We're betting that owners won't be able to transcode, copy, email, or do much of anything else with their recordings. Given that, QAM (quadrature amplitude modulation)-enabled digital TV tuner cards aren't a bad alternative. The first crop of these is arriving from AVerMedia (www.avermedia.com) and will enable users to tune in digital cable channels, including unprotected HD channels, through their PCs without the need for a set-top box. Consumers can record, transcode, and share until the cows come home. For those who don't subscribe to the premium channels, this is a great value-add that showcases a PC's inherent advantages over most extender devices. "HTPCs are far more capable versus extenders such as the Xbox 360 or Apple TV," says Shuttle spokesperson Sheila Dy. "The former allows for DVR functionality, Internet streaming, open-ended audio/video codecs, and the traditional features of a PC. Extenders are limited as they force users into proprietary codecs and their own services. Plus there are no DVR functionalities, and they are often bonded to a PC that is required to be on most of the time when you want to access many of their features." The thing you don't want to ignore with HTPCs is the form factor. A living room PC has to blend in, and that's no easy task. SilverStone, Antec, and several others make HTPC-friendly cases, and building from scratch usually gives you the most configuration flexibility. If you want a little name brand boost and some help in the early configuration stages, a pre-assembled barebones from the likes of Shuttle may make good sense. For system builders, Shuttle recommends its SD32G2, a Core 2 Duo-ready box built in the classic XPC mode. All things considered, we're more partial to the less flexible but far more chic X200, which is essentially an Intel mobile-on-desktop design based on the 945GM chipset. The unit has a handful of options, but don't count on much expandability under the hood. For a real eye-popper, try Shuttle's highly integrated, set-top format M2000, a fully configured Viiv machine available in quantity to the channel at a discount.
So the upside is that there is more than one way to conquer the living room in 2007. Last year, we were trying to come up with a one-size-fits-all solution. Now, we have several options, and that means you have a lot more ability to help a broader segment of your customer base. ...more |
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Copyright © 2007 RAM Magazine. All rights reserved.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. |
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